Earthquake's Regional "When" Forecasting Using Reliable Geomagnetic Precursor

INRNE, BAS, Sofia, Bulgaria


   Strachimir Chterev Navrodiev, Sofia
    Lazo Pekevski, Skopje

Last update: 18:34 Sofia local time, Tuesday, November 25, 2014


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Earthquake Prediction


Attention, please! The imminent predictions of the time window for incoming earthquake in Balkan- Black sea region have to be used only for scientific purposes. We accepts no liability in respect of loss, damage, injury or other occurrence arising from the provision of our data.
There is a long, but attainable, way to create reliable "when, where and how" earthquake prediction NETWORK and civil defence system. We believe that the achievement of this aim is possible in the framework of wide interdisciplinary scientific group on the basis of Complex monitoring analysis and modeling of World data.

November 16, 2008,We are sorry to inform our visitors, that our Dubna one component magnetometer stopped to work some month ago, because of technical and resources reasons. So, we can not give information for the time period of incoming events in Sofia region.
November 2004:Please, see in the web subdirectory Collaboration our Agreement Collaboration Proposal.
June 2006: In Project subdirectory one can read the late variant of the Project .
In Reliability one can read the 2 reliability test (Sofia and Sofia, Skopje ) data papers.
May 2007: On the possibility of earthquake predictions

May 2008: On the 12 May China, Sichuan, Wenchun magnitude 7.9 earthquake

June 3, 2008: The time of China, Sichuan, Wenchuan magnitude 7.9 earthquake could be predicted, Lazo Pekevski and Strachimir Cht. Mavrodiev, Sichuan earthquake

15 March, 2011: The incoming time period of terrible Japan hazards could be forecasting using the geomagnetic data of Kakioka, Japan INTERMAGNET station!

19 March , 2011: Solidarity, help, exchange of knowledge, the text of our e-mail

Dear Friends and Colleagues from Japan,
Me, my friends and colleagues are with you in front of natural and anthropogenic catastrophes! We believe that the Japan people will overcome soon the enormous consequences! Please, visit our web site ( http://theo.inrne.bas.bg/~mavrodi/ ) to see that if Japan Geomagnetic Intermagnet stations would used our analysis, they could wait the imminent increasing of seismicity in the region. We are ready to discuss the Collaboration with Japan colleagues for researching the possibilities for solving the "when, where and how" earthquakes prediction problem on the basis of complex monitoring and inverse problem nonlinear analysis. The Japan Intermagnet stations have local geomagnetic, Earth electricity and Vertical electrical current measurements with almost appropriate samples/second. So we can start the test our Research program. Concerning the refrigerating efforts,we would like to propose the using of slow down (better liquid) metals like aluminum, lead,(mercury ?),..., ftor, but not H2O. Please, remember the technology of Submarine reactors.
Strachimir Chterev Mavrodiev,
Coordinator of FP7, IRSES Project "Complex Research of Earthquake’s forecasting possibilities, seismicity and Climate change correlations"
P.S.1. Please, inform the Nuclear and Governmental authorities for our mail.

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The first aim of this web site is to inform about our efforts to research the possibility of short term earthquake prediction on the basis of electromagnetic field variations under, on, over Earth surface and near Space. Of course, such problem, as the prediction of time, place, power and intensity of the incoming earthquake is so complex that can be solved only in the framework of wide interdisciplinary scientific group, which includes not only the Earth System Sciences but also the methods from modern high energy particle and solid states physics, nonlinear problems mathematics and biology. So, the main aim is to start step by step creating such scientific group, the monitoring and the reliability analysis of the predictions and physical adequacy of the models. The monitoring and its data acquisition system have to work in almost real time, using the many component correlation analysis and nonlinear inverse problem methods for establishing the correlations. The created step by step mathematical and physical models have to be tested with comparing its predictions with the monitoring data. The changes of chosen space and time scales of the monitoring have to be dynamically imputed in the software with aim to clarify the adequateness of tested physical models. The one consequence of anthropogenic global warming, because of the polar ice decreasing, leads to changes of quasistationary daily Earth movements equilibrium, which will catalyze the increasing of the seismic activity. The good news is that this changes are not so big to activate the increasing the number of earthquakes with magnitude greater than 7.
So, our Civilization has some years (but not more than 5-7) to solve the global warming and earthquake’s "when, where and how" prediction problems.

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p.s. January 2005: The U.S. Geological Survey eq’s data for 2004 illustrates how serious are consequences of the global warming and the importance of understanding the reasons for it.
p.s. November 2005: In May 2005 we had CO2 and Temperature data. It permit us to analyze the number and energy of World earthquakes and to predict that the number of World earthquakes with magnitude greater then 4 in 2095 will be 15610 +1500- 500. In the next figure is illustrated month by month how this estimation will occurs in 2005.

p.s. 21 December, 2006
Some consequences of global warming, Mavrodiev S. Cht, Ries L.C, GEIA Open Conference, 29 Nov. – 1 Dec., 2006, Paris, France

Reliability test:


February 22, 2007

Magnitude Pred.Number Ocurred Difference Difference(%)
4<Mag 13676 14728 -1052 -7.7
4<Mag<5 11683 13048 -1365 -11.7
5<Mag<6 1820 1529 291 16.0
6<Mag<7 157 139 18 11.5
7<Mag 15 12 3 20.0


Data source: http://eqint.cr.usgs.gov/neic/cgi-bin/epic/epic.cgi?

Dictionary: http://www.icce.ac.cn/icce/cea/strategy.htm

Long-term prediction: Prediction of earthquakes that will occur in several to 10 years.

Mid-term prediction: Prediction of earthquakes that will occur within several months to several years.

Short-term prediction: Prediction of earthquakes that will occur in the next two weeks to the several months.

Imminent prediction: Prediction of earthquakes that will occur within two weeks.

SChtM/June 2004, Sofia