Earthquake's Regional Forecasting Using Reliable Geomagnetic Precursor

INRNE, BAS, Sofia, Bulgaria

Project


Earthquake Research and Prediction Local Complex NETWORK



Last version of the Project with short explanations:

Complex regional NETWORK for earthquake researching and imminent prediction

The aim of this proposal is to create a Local Complex NETWORK for researching the reliability of different precursors for earthquake with magnitude greater then 3 in the region 600–800 km. The "when, where and how" problem will be solved step–by–step in a long, but attainable, way for establishing the hidden (unknown) dependences and correlations between parameters and creating an adequate physical theoretical models for the Earth’s interior in different time and space scales as well as its gradual unification. For such complex research a new type of scientific unification has to be realized, including experimental, theoretical and technological parts.

Experimental data

Experimental data includes geomagnetic field, the atmospheric and ionosphere electromagnetic phenomena in wide range of radio frequencies from ULF, VLF to VHF, generated from Earth core and Ionosphere sources, electropotential distribution in the Earth’s crust and atmosphere, temperature Earth crust distribution, crust parameters (strain, deformation, displacement), gravitational anomaly map, season and daily independent depth temperature distribution, water source parameters (debit, temperature, chemical composition, radioactivity), gas emissions, ionosphere condition parameters, infrared radiation of Earth’s surface, earthquake clouds, Earth radiation belt, Sun wind, biological precursors and so on.



Theory

The correlations (hidden dependences) have to be researched between geology distribution, Core movements (stress distribution), surface fault parameters and depth, magnitude and intensity of earthquakes, depth temperature and Surface satellite temperature and earthquake clouds, depth Crust temperature and Hydrogeodeformation field parameters and earthquakes parameters of occurred earthquakes, between hour tidal behavior and time of occurred earthquakes as function of distances, depth and magnitude. On the basis of gravimetric monitoring one has to test the used Earth Tidal behavior code . The estimation of Ocean Tides influence seems to be important for the seismic activity of region with not so deep seas because of global warming and consequent increase of the Ocean level. To research the dependences between of earthquake acceleration distributions on geology, magnitude depth and distances as well as the dependences between earthquake depth, magnitude and radiated wave and dissipation energy. Using vector and scalar Electromagnetic (Geomagnetic quake, Earthquake currents (electropotential surface distribution), Surface electropotential distribution isolines) quake data to research and solve the epicenter problem and earthquake’s depth. To estimate the reliable distances of precursor signal. The Radio wave vector monitoring using ala SETI frequency and energy spectra analysis has to give the parallel information for the epicenter estimation as well as for the reliable precursors distance. The statistical estimation of the Sun storms as earthquake trigger for bigger earthquakes has to be obtained. The comparing of concrete surface and satellite electromagnetic data (for example DEMETER data and Musala Observatory (2925 m attitude) data, has to give the estimations for the attitude behavior of electromagnetic field which is generated by the earthquake. To research the Global warming parameters dependences as CO2 concentration and average temperature, polar ice surface, Ocean level and increasing of Ocean cost tides amplitudes, the number and energy of earthquakes as function of time and its correlations with continental Alfred Wegener movements, Earth periods and Sun wind and Tidal forces induced periods.



Technologies

The using of GIS and data acquisition systems for archiving, analysis, visualization and interpretation of the data in almost real time and non- linear inverse problem methods for step by step creating and testing the theoretical models for the parameters behavior, correlations and dynamics in the framework of wide interdisciplinary scientific group are necessary but not sufficient conditions for the successful working research and prediction NETWORK. The set of the used devices has to be in correspondence with known data for earthquake risk zones (gravitational anomalies, crust parameters’ monitoring-strain, deformation, displacement and seismic hazard evaluation maps). The geomagnetic device set distance has to be 150–200 km, the electropotential from 100 to 200 km in accordance with the present geological situation and its history. The set for monitoring of the daily and season crust temperatures has to be in the range of 100 km. The correlations with Sun wind influence have to be estimated in real time. On complex mobile station will permit to research the distance and geology dependences.


Complex earthquake research and prediction NETWORK.

1. Experimental part.

1.1. Usual geophysical and seismological monitoring of the region.

1.1.1. Geology data base.

1.1.2. Electrical resistance depth and surface distributions of the soil.

1.1.3. Gravimetric isolines.

1.1.4. Hours GPS measurements.

1.1.5. Season and Daily Independent crust temperature.

1.1.6. Hydrochemical monitoring of water sources and their Radon and Helium concentrations, Hydrogeodeformation field.

1.2. Electromagnetic monitoring under, on, and over Earth Surface.

1.2.1. Geomagnetic vector 100 km set with accuracy 1 nT and 10–50 samples/ second Earthquake currents two dimensional vector 100 km set with relative accuracy 0.01% and 10–50 samples/ second

1.2.2. Surface electrometer 100 km set with relative accuracy 0.01% and 10–50 samples/ second.

1.2.3. ULF and LF Radio wave two dimensional vector monitoring using ala SETI frequency and energy spectra analysis code.

1.2.4. Pulsed LF-HF-VHF Ionosphere Radio Emission (Phil, S. Pulinets paper).

1.2.5. Attitude electropotential distribution with relative accuracy 0.01% and 10–50 samples/ second.

1.2.6. Shuman resonance data.

1.3. Standard meteorological monitoring, including Ionosphere condition parameters.

1.4. Near space satellite monitoring of Earth Surface radiation and temperature, geomagnetic field and charge distribution.

1.5. Biological precursors.

2. Theoretical part.

2.1. Research on the common parts of different models of Earth and its Crust conditions, Tidal processes, Earth geomagnetism, Ionosphere and magnetosphere perturbations revealed from combined satellite and ground records (Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling), Earthquake physics models.

2.2. Research on the possible unifications of above sited and new created models.

2.3. Researching of empirical dependences between planet Earth condition parameters on the basis on nonlinear inverse problem methods.

2.4. Researching of systematic of earthquake parameters: magnitude, intensity, depth, the size of volume and surface fault on the basis on nonlinear inverse problem methods.

2.5. The application of solid state (phase shift) theory to the physics of earthquakes- the electromagnetic quake and earthquake energy- distance, depth, volume, magnitude, strike-slip structure and so on.

2.6. Etceteras?.

3. Technologies.

3.1. Real time data acquisition system for preliminary archiving, testing, visualizing and analyzing the data and risks estimations.

3.2. Software for solving nonlinear problems.

January 3, 2006/SChtM